LIVE ODDS
EXPERT ANALYSIS
The Yankees have one of the most dominant pitching matchups of the week. Their ace takes the mound with a 1.92 ERA over his last 6 starts against AL East opponents — a stretch that includes two complete games and a shutout. The Red Sox lineup, which ranks 22nd in wRC+ over the last 30 days, is not equipped to solve elite pitching.
The Red Sox bullpen has been a disaster. Four blown saves in the last 10 days, including two in walk-off fashion. Their closer has a 6.75 ERA in his last 8 appearances, and the setup corps isn't much better. If the Yankees build any kind of lead, the game is effectively over.
Yankee Stadium plays as a slight hitter's park, but with the wind blowing in from right field tonight, the power numbers will be suppressed. That actually helps the Yankees — their ace is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't rely on strikeouts. He'll keep the ball in the park and let the defense do the work.
At -130, this is a reasonable price for a team with a clear pitching edge and a bullpen advantage. The Yankees are the better team in this spot.
KEY STATS
White = supports pick · Orange = risk factor
- Yankees ace ERA (L6G vs AL East)
- 1.92
- Red Sox bullpen blown saves (L10 days)
- 4
- Red Sox wRC+ rank (L30 days)
- 22nd
- Yankees closer ERA (L8 apps)
- 1.44
- Wind direction
- Blowing in from RF
- Yankees vs Red Sox (season)
- 8-4 SU